The effects of covid-19 on the economy of the population of the region Huancavelica, from a systems dynamics approach

Abstract

The economy of the rural population of Peru, as a result of social isolation to control the effects of covid-19, was the most affected due to the fall in the demand and price of agricultural products, generating job losses and worsening the conditions of poverty of the population. In order to understand the effects of covid on the economy of the population and approximate the effects to the year 2026, a dynamic model was built. Which allowed us to analyze the situation in three scenarios: First, it corresponds to a normal situation, without covid-19. Second, it corresponds to the situation generated by covid-19, and third, it corresponds to the mechanisms that the government establishes to improve the situation generated by the pandemic. In conclusion, the pandemic generated a fall in the demand for agricultural products to -13%, and prices to -40%; reducing employment to -10% and increasing poverty to more than 10%. Approaches to the year 2026 indicate that the situation would worsen if urgent actions are not taken, and the mechanisms implemented to increase the demand and price of agricultural products would not have expected results in the recovery of the region's economy.